NFL Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers visit Hobbled Cleveland Browns
Saturday, December 31, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
Already a participant in the post season celebration, the Pittsburgh Steelers go into the final week of the regular season with a chance to finish anywhere from first to fifth in the AFC.
The Steelers are weighing how much that playoff seeding means to them as they decide whether to let injured players like Ben Roethlisberger and LaMarr Woodley suit up on Sunday at the Cleveland Browns. Even if the Steelers win the game, they still could be looking at the No. 5 seed due to the Baltimore Ravens holding the tiebreaker in the NFC North.
Roethlisberger, who missed last week’s win over the St. Louis Rams with a high ankle sprain, has practiced this week and could play Sunday. The Cleveland Browns are almost certain not to have their starting quarterback. Colt McCoy has still not been cleared to practice due to a concussion suffered in a Week 14 loss to Pittsburgh. Steelers linebacker James Harrison, who delivered the hit that knocked McCoy out, will be the target of plenty of jeers from the Cleveland faithful.
Roethlisberger, though, was held out of this past Saturday's 27-0 rout of the St. Louis Rams, with Charlie Batch getting the start and throwing for 208 yards with an interception. Pittsburgh leaned on its ground game versus the Rams, getting rushing touchdowns from three different players, but head coach Mike Tomlin won't hesitate using Batch again in this must-win game after the veteran improved to 5-2 as a Steelers' starter.
Roethlisberger, who did practice in full on Wednesday for the first time in three weeks, played the entire second half versus the Browns back in Week 14 and broke the game open with a late 79-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Antonio Brown that gave Pittsburgh a 14-3 win.
Seneca Wallace got his second straight start in place of McCoy this past weekend, a 20-14 loss to the Ravens in which the Browns nearly rallied from 20 points down. Joshua Cribbs got the comeback try started with a career-long 84- yard punt return for a score late in the third quarter, and Wallace tight end Evan Moore for a six-yard touchdown midway through the fourth.
However, the Ravens were able to run out the clock when Cleveland rookie defensive tackle Phil Taylor took a five-yard encroachment penalty on 4th-and-2 with two minutes left.
Also big was Wallace's decision not to spike the ball at the Ravens' three-yard line at the end of the first half. He instead handed off to running back Peyton Hillis, who was stuffed at the line as time expired.
The loss was Cleveland's fifth in a row, its longest slide since a seven-game skid from Oct. 18-Dec. 6, 2009.
A victory in this game would give 4-11 Cleveland four wins at home for the first time since notching seven in 2007.
The Steelers lead the all-time regular season series with the Browns, which dates back to 1950, by a 61-56 count and have now won three straight and 15 of the 16 most recent games played between the teams following their Week 14 triumph.
Pittsburgh, which will seeking its seventh season sweep of Cleveland in the last eight years, has also enjoyed significant success as the visitor in this set as of late, having emerged victorious in nine of its last 10 stops at Cleveland Browns Stadium. The Browns' lone positive result against the Steelers over that rough 16-game stretch did take place at home in 2009, when Cleveland pulled off a 13-6 upset while entering the contest with a 1-11 record. Pittsburgh scored a 41-9 rout of the Browns when the two faced one another in Ohio during last year's regular-season finale.
The longtime rivals have also squared off twice in the postseason, with the Steelers taking both contests. Pittsburgh picked up a 29-9 win at home in a 1994 AFC Divisional Playoff and outlasted the Browns in a 36-33 thriller at Heinz Field in a 2002 AFC First-Round Playoff.
Tomlin is 8-1 against the Browns during his tenure as a head coach, while Pat Shurmur lost his only previous meeting with the Steelers and Tomlin in his present position with last month's setback.
Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, January 1, 2012. Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
Last Week's results:
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-15.5) beats visiting St-Louis Rams 27-0.
- Cleveland Browns (+13) loses to host Baltimore Ravens 20-14.
Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) wins and covers
- Underdog Cleveland Browns (4-11) loses but covers.
NFL Football Odds: Steelers -6.5, O/U 35.5.
Playoff Picture:
- Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have clinched a playoff berth. Pittsburgh clinches the AFC North and a first-round bye with a win + a BAL loss. Pittsburgh clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with a win + BAL loss + NE loss. COMMENT: The division is still there for the taking, and there's an outside chance at the No. 1 seed. The Steelers could use a bye week, allowing Big Ben additional time to heal.
- Cleveland Browns: Eliminated (week 14)
If Roethlisberger cannot make the start, Batch will take the snaps looking for another performance like the 208 yards he threw up last weekend. Either way, the Steelers will try to take advantage of the Browns’ suspect run defense with a healthy dose of Rashard Mendenhall, who rushed for 116 yards and a touchdown last week. Pittsburgh will clinch the No. 1 seed with a win and losses by Baltimore and New England.
Cleveland is in that NFL nether-region, where it is not nearly good enough to earn a playoff spot but not quite bad enough to challenge for the No. 1 overall draft pick. Wherever they end up inside the top 10 in the draft, the Browns will likely consider a quarterback after McCoy posted a 74.6 rating in his 13 games. Cleveland has dropped five games in a row, including the 14-3 setback at Pittsburgh.
This will mark Harrison's first game versus the Browns since his illegal hit to McCoy and though he has done time served, the Cleveland offense needs to keep its emotions in check and not try to get revenge on the oft-fined linebacker. Harrison, meanwhile, could be a little timid in this game as he tries to avoid another penalty.
Take away Roethlisberger's long touchdown pass to Brown in the first meeting and the hobbled Steelers would have finished with under 200 net passing yards. Cleveland's success in that area and Big Ben's ailment should give a lot of work to Pittsburgh's backfield again this Sunday.
Should the Steelers go run-heavy, rookies Jabaal Sheard and Phil Taylor will get a chance to wrap up their first seasons with big numbers. Teamed with Ahtyba Rubin, the Browns have one of the better defensive lines in the conference, and that unit can make a statement for the next season this weekend.Pittsburgh has dominated the series recently, winning 20 of the last 22 meetings.
Roethlisberger needs 144 yards to reach 4,000 for the second time in his career.
Browns rookie receiver Greg Little needs six catches to pass Kevin Johnson (66) for the team rookie record.
Cleveland is 2-5-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Pittsburgh is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Even without Roethlisberger, a fired-up Steelers team should have all the talent they need to get past the lowly Browns. Pittsburgh will need to stay focused, though, as it plays the same time as Baltimore and scoreboard watching could become a habit all game.
Pittsburgh has no one to blame but itself (and in theory, Baltimore) for not having control of its own destiny, but it should still be able to take care of business at its own end. After that, it's just waiting for the chips to fall where they may.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Steelers.
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ahtyba rubin - antonio brown - baltimore ravens - ben roethlisberger - charlie batch - cleveland browns - cleveland browns stadium - colt mccoy - evan moore - greg little
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