NFL Pick: Critical Battle Awaits Buffalo Bills As They Travel To NY Jets
Saturday, November 26, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
It's only been three weeks since the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets last faced one another. It only seems like three years.
Flying high atop the AFC East heading into a Week 9 game with the visiting Jets, the Bills head to MetLife Stadium in a decidedly different state for the Week 12 rematch.
And that's not just a reference to the Jets' residence in New Jersey.
Now standing third in a four-team division, Buffalo visits the Jets in the midst of a three-game losing streak in which they've been outscored, 106-26. The slide began with the 27-11 loss to New York in Orchard Park on Nov. 6. And they'll do so without one of their premier offensive weapons, running back Fred Jackson, who was placed on injured reserve this week after suffering a broken right leg in last Sunday's 35-8 setback at Miami.
Jackson, who ranks third in the NFL with 934 rushing yards, will be replaced by 2010 first-round pick C.J. Spiller, who has run for 398 yards and one touchdown on 95 carries in 24 career games.
The Bills are two games behind division-leader New England and a game off the pace of Cincinnati, whom they lost to by a 23-20 score on Oct. 2, in the race for the AFC's second Wild Card spot.
Buffalo has not had a playoff game since the "Music City Miracle" loss to Tennessee in January of 2000 and hasn't won in the postseason since beating Miami on Dec. 30, 1995.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick helped the Bills average 32.8 points while going 4-1 to begin the season, but they've scored at just a 14.3 points-per-game clip since.
Fitzpatrick emerged as a legitimate No. 1 when he threw for 3,000 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2010. He's completing a career-best 63.6 percent of his passes this season, though his touchdown-to-interception ratio has dropped to 16-to-14 through 10 games. He threw 15 interceptions in all of 2010.
Eleven of Fitzpatrick's 14 interceptions this year have come in the last six games, and he was picked off twice while going 15-of-31 for 191 yards in the Week 9 loss to the Jets.
Top target Stevie Johnson has just seven catches in three games after grabbing 39 in the first seven. He has 11 receptions for 187 yards and a touchdown in his last three appearances against New York.
The Bills have been outscored by a 122-45 margin in four games against the Jets since last beating them in October of 2009.
Truth be told, New York hasn't exactly been blazing either since its Week 9 win.
The Jets have dropped from a surging 5-3 to a stumbling 5-5 in two games since, taking a 37-16 home throttling by the Patriots before a Tim Tebow-engineered 17-13 loss at Denver five days later.
New York was 8-2 after 10 games last season and 4-6 in 2009, but ended both with appearances in the conference championship game -- ultimately losing at Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, respectively.
The Jets face one team with a winning record, the New York Giants, in their final six games.
The Bills lead the all-time regular season series with the Jets by a 53-48 count, but New York has won four straight and six of the last seven bouts between the divisional foes and as previously mentioned, handed Buffalo a 27-11 defeat at Ralph Wilson Stadium back in Week 9.
The Jets also routed the Bills by a 38-7 count at MetLife Stadium in the 2010 regular season finale and pinned a 38-14 home loss on the Bills earlier that year. Buffalo's lone victory over that seven-game stretch took place at the Meadowlands in 2009, a 16-13 overtime verdict in which Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez threw five interceptions.
Buffalo won the only postseason matchup between the franchises, a 31-27 triumph at Shea Stadium in a 1981 AFC First-Round playoff.
Chan Gailey is 0-4 against the Jets for his career, which includes a loss while in charge of the Dallas Cowboys in 1999. New York head coach Rex Ryan is 4-1 lifetime versus Buffalo and has won all three of his head-to-head meetings with Gailey.
Time & Venue:
- :00 PM ET, Sunday, November 27, 2011. MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Last Week's results:
- Buffalo Bills (+1) loses to host Miami Dolphins 35-8.
- NY Jets (-4.5) loses to host Denver Broncos 17-13.
Last week's ATS:
- Underdog Buffalo Bills (5-5) loses and does not cover
- Favourite NY Jets (5-5) loses outright.
NFL Football Odds: Jets -9.5, O/U 42
Next up:
- Buffalo home to Tennessee, Sunday, December 4
- NY Jets at Washington, Sunday, December 4
What’s happened to Buffalo? After signing quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to a $59 million, six-year deal earlier in the season, the Bills have gone into the tank. Once the surprise team of the NFL, Buffalo is averaging just nine points during its current three-game skid. Before Fitzpatrick inked the deal, Buffalo was leading the NFL in scoring at over 31 points per game, but injuries and turnovers have since derailed its surprising run. Now Jackson is done for the year and the season looks like a lost cause.
Former first-round pick C.J. Spiller will get a chance to carry the workload. The wide receiver corps lost Donald Jones to a grotesque broken ankle last week and he is out for the season. Fitzpatrick has thrown two touchdown passes and seven interceptions in his last four games.
The Jets could be down to their third running back after starter Shonn Greene (questionable) left last week’s game with a rib injury. Joe McKnight played fairly well in Greene’s place, but New York questions his pass-blocking skills and quarterback Mark Sanchez seems to need all the help – and time – he can get in the pocket. Sanchez was 20 for 28 and overcame two first-half turnovers as New York thoroughly dominated the Bills earlier in the season in winning at Buffalo 27-11.
The loss ended Buffalo’s four-game winning streak and sent the Bills on their current slide. But Sanchez has just one touchdown pass and four interceptions in his past two games, both losses, and has not topped a 69 passer rating. LaDainian Tomlinson is also injured, putting a bigger onus on the shoulders of Sanchez.
New York's Greene had 19 carries for 76 yards in his last game against the Bills and is probable after leaving the Denver loss with injured ribs. His impact is important to the Jets' chances.
Fitzpatrick has been slumping since signing his $59 million contract extension and will need to regain his early-season magic to get the Bills back in the playoff race.
A disappointment since his early selection last season, Spiller gets a six-week chance to reinvent himself to the Bills and their fans. The running game was important to Buffalo's early-season success, and the team needs the youngster to be at least a capable fill-in for Jackson.
Streaky New York already suffered through a three-game losing streak earlier in the season.
The Jets are 4-1 at home. Buffalo is 1-4 on the road.
Stevie Johnson has just four receptions in his last two games combined and figures to draw the coverage of Darrelle Revis on Sunday.
NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 11 of the NY Jets last 16 games
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Buffalo is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
As in Week 9, the Jets seem to have matchup advantages in both directions. And with Spiller now in the driver's seat carrying the ball, those edges seem magnified. With Fitzpatrick and Sanchez both slumping, the team that gets the best quarterback play gets a significant leg up. If all else is tied, the Jets having home field carries the day.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Jets.
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buffalo bills - c.j. spiller - chan gailey - dallas cowboys - darrelle revis - denver broncos - donald jones - fred jackson - joe mcknight - ladainian tomlinson
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