Football Pick: Tennessee Titans Must Take Care Of Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, December 18, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
The Indianapolis Colts have the unenviable luxury of securing their future by performing their sorry theatrics once more come Sunday afternoon. For good measures, they do get three more chances to avoid a winless season, but a 14th loss Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, will ensure the once formidable team the first overall pick in the 2012 draft. A deja vu for the franchise dating back to 1998.
Indeed, with a defeat and wins by the Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams (highly improbable) , the Colts will have secured the pick, which likely will be used on Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.
Meanwhile, Tennessee still is vying for a playoff spot and sits one game behind the New York Jets for the second wild card in the AFC. The Titans could be without QB Matt Hasselbeck, who left last Sunday's loss to the New Orleans Saints with a strained left calf. Backup Jake Locker would get the start if Hasselbeck can't go, although he was held out of Wednesday's practice with a sore chest suffered against New Orleans.
Hasselbeck did not participate when Tennessee reconvened for practice on Wednesday and remains questionable for Sunday's visit to Lucas Oil Stadium to meet the hapless Colts. The Titans are second to the already- clinched Houston Texans in the AFC South standings and trail the Jets, who lead two other 7-6 teams and the 6-7 San Diego Chargers, in the chase for the final Wild Card.
If Hasselbeck can't go, it'll be start No. 1 for Locker, the eighth overall pick in the 2011 draft.
The Colts, who won 10 or more games for nine straight seasons between 2002 and 2010, have never dropped the first 14 games in any of their 58 campaigns. The streak's extinction hangs on the arms of quarterbacks Dan Orlovsky and Curtis Painter, neither of whom have won an NFL start.
Orlovsky started seven games for the only team in league history to go 0-16, the 2008 Detroit Lions.
The dual quarterback question comes in the same week where injured incumbent Peyton Manning, who'd not missed a game in his 14-year career prior to this season, had increased his throwing regimen while continuing recovery from a pair of neck surgeries.
Indianapolis is 31st in the league in total offense and was held to 50 rushing yards last week in a 24-10 loss at Baltimore -- its lowest ground total since gaining 40 against Dallas on Dec. 5, 2010. The Colts did rush for a season-high 158 yards against Tennessee in the fellow division members' first meeting on Oct. 30, a 27-10 loss in Nashville.
Indianapolis holds a 20-13 lead in its all-time regular-season series with Tennessee and had defeated the Titans five consecutive times prior to its 17- point loss at LP Field back in Week 8. Tennessee hasn't had much recent success as the visitor in this set, however, having been dealt defeats in three straight and seven of its last trips to Indianapolis, with its lone victory over that span a 16-10 decision in 2007.
The Titans came close in their latest stop at Lucas Oil Stadium, however, with the Colts coming through in a 23-20 squeaker in the 2010 regular season finale on Adam Vinatieri's 43-yard field goal as time expired.
Since the AFC South was instituted in 2002, Tennessee has recorded a home-and- home sweep of Indianapolis just once in its history, which came during the division's first year of existence.
The only postseason encounter between the two was in a 1999 AFC Divisional Playoff, when Tennessee scored a 19-16 road victory en route to a Super Bowl appearance.
Jim Caldwell has gone 4-1 against Tennessee since replacing Tony Dungy prior to the 2009 season, while Mike Munchak won his initial battle with both the Colts and Caldwell with the above-noted outcome on Oct. 30.
Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 18, 2011. Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Last Week's results:
- Tennessee Titans (+3.5) loses to visiting New Orleans Saints 22-17.
- Indianapolis Colts (+16.5) loses to host Baltimore Ravens 24-10.
Last week's ATS:
- Underdog Tennessee Titans (7-6) loses and does not cover
- Underdog Indianapolis Colts (0-13) loses but covers.
NFL Football Odds: Titans - 7, O/U 41.5.
Next up:
- Tennessee home to Jacksonville Jaguars, Saturday, December 24
- Indianapolis home to Houston Texans, Thursday, December 22
Coach Munchak believes Hasselbeck will play, although giving Locker his first career start is a very real possibility. “(Hasselbeck) knows if he doesn’t feel right, he will be honest with us, so we still feel good about him and hope that he will be ready to go Sunday,” Munchak said. The Titans ended their five-game losing streak against the Colts with a 27-10 victory at home on Oct. 30. They have dropped seven of their last eight visits to Indianapolis. Running back Javon Ringer will sit out Sunday with a hand injury.
Indianapolis received a bit of good news Wednesday as coach Caldwell announced Peyton Manning has increased his rehabilitation regimen, which includes more throwing. Manning, who has undergone three neck surgeries over the last 19 months, is unlikely to play this season and may have already appeared in his last game with the Colts, as they are expected to draft Luck, a move that could result in the trading of Manning. Dan Orlovsky is expected to make his third straight start. Orlovsky threw for only 136 yards in last week's loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
The Colts' chances at an initial victory of 2011 might spike if Tennessee is forced to go with No. 2 Locker or even green No. 3 quarterback Rusty Smith, who's not taken a snap this season and thrown just 40 passes in his career. Locker also missed some practice time this week with sore ribs, enabling Smith to receive some first-team snaps, and how healthy and effective whomever the Titans send out under center will help determine Sunday's outcome.
That said, Tennessee's spot in the playoff race gives the team everything to play for in Week 15, while the Colts' only motivation is avoiding the ugliness of a winless season. The Titans would have an obvious advantage if the hosts come out flat.
RB Chris Johnson had a pair of 100-yard games before stumbling to just 23 yards against New Orleans last week. He may get back to triple-digits against the league's 30th-ranked rush defense, and Tennessee is 4-0 this season when its star back surpasses the century mark in a game.
Tennessee is attempting to sweep the season series with Indianapolis for the first time since 2002.
Titans running back Chris Johnson needs two rushing touchdowns to become the third player in franchise history to record 40 scores on the ground. Earl Campbell (73) and Eddie George (64) are the others.
Indianapolis receiver Reggie Wayne is seven catches away from 850 for his career.
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tennessee's last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Connoisseurs of the "trap game" theory might look twice at this one with the inconsistent Titans hitting the road -- perhaps with a rookie or a third- stringer at quarterback -- against a skidding foe while in the midst of a playoff run. But even with Locker or Smith at the helm, it seems Johnson's presence alone would be enough to tip the scales toward the presumably more talented visitors.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Titans.
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adam vinatieri - afc south - baltimore ravens - chris johnson - curtis painter - dan orlovsky - houston texans - indianapolis colts - jacksonville jaguars - jake locker
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