Contender Atlanta Falcons Gets Visit From Inspired Jacksonville Jaguars
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
The Atlanta Falcons showed some tremendous resolve last week against the Carolina Panthers. Vying for a playoff spot and staring at a 16 point deficit in the second half, a loss would have certainly dashed all hope for a postseason spot. QB Matt Ryan had other ideas. He threw three second-half touchdown passes as the Falcons reeled off 24 unanswered points in a 31-23 victory at Carolina.
With a short turnaround heading into Thursday night's home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, it was just the spark needed by Atlanta, which is tied with Detroit for the final two playoff slots in the NFC with three weeks to play. Atlanta also got a respite off the field when head coach Mike Smith was hospitalized with chest pains after the game, but was back with the team 24 hours later.
Atlanta is second in the NFC South, trailing first-place New Orleans by two games while holding a one-game edge over Chicago and Dallas for one of two conference Wild Card berths.
The Falcons are 6-4 within the NFC and have a road game against the Saints next week before finishing up at home against Tampa Bay.
As for Jacksonville, week No. 2 of the Mel Tucker Era was by all means a success.
The Jaguars scored a season-high 41 points -- just the second time they'd exited the teens all season -- en route to a 27-point thrashing of visiting Tampa Bay on Sunday in their second game since Tucker was named interim coach in the aftermath of Jack Del Rio's firing.
The output was the Jaguars' highest in a game since they beat Oakland, 49-11, in 2007.
And while long eliminated from the playoff race at 4-9, an upset on the road at Atlanta could ultimately lead Jacksonville to a strong finish in the final two weeks, where it'll meet Tennessee and Indianapolis -- two of the four teams it's beaten so far in 2011. Not to mention what it might mean for Tucker in terms of shedding his interim status.
Jacksonville has won three of four lifetime matchups with Atlanta during the regular season, with its most recent victory in the series a 13-7 home triumph in 2007. The Jaguars also bested the Falcons by a 30-7 count on the road in 1999, but Atlanta got even via a 21-14 decision at the Georgia Dome during the 2003 campaign.
This teams also squared off in Jacksonville during this year's preseason, with the Jaguars posting a 15-13 win on Aug. 19.
Both Smith, who served as Jacksonville's defensive coordinator under former head coach Jack Del Rio from 2003-07 before coming to the Falcons, and Tucker will be opposing one another -- as well as their counterpart's respective teams -- for the first time as head coaches.
Time & Venue:
- 8:20 PM ET, Thursday, December 15, 2011. Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
Last Week's results:
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) beats visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41-14.
- Atlanta Falcons (-3) beats host Carolina Panthers 31-23.
Last week's ATS:
- Underdog Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) wins outright
- Favourite Atlanta Falcons (8-5) wins and covers.
NFL Football Odds: Falcons -11.5, O/U 42.5
Next up:
- Jacksonville at Tennessee Titans, Saturday, December 24
- Atlanta at New Orleans Saints, Monday, December 26
RB Maurice Jones-Drew scored a career-high four touchdowns – two rushing, two receiving – as Jacksonville snapped a three-game losing streak by pounding intrastate rival Tampa Bay 41-14. Jacksonville had not scored more than 20 points this season prior to the outburst. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert surpassed 200 yards passing for only the third time as the Jaguars scored the final 27 points.
Ryan tied his career high with four touchdown passes, including a pair of fourth-quarter scoring strikes to rookie wide receiver Julio Jones. Ryan threw for 320 yards and had a 120.5 passing rating, helping Atlanta improve to 21-0 when he has a passer rating above 100. WR Roddy White had seven receptions for 84 yards and scored a touchdown in his third straight game. TE Tony Gonzalez also had seven catches and went over 70 receptions for the ninth straight season.
Considering the way that the Jaguars’ offense failed to show up on ten days ago against the Chargers, it had to have been a surprise to see the team put up 41 against the Bucs. However, 14 of those points came from a defense that had been embarrassed the previous week, and Maurice Jones-Drew visited the end zone four times. The Falcons can cheat up in to the box and worry about Jones-Drew as their biggest challenge with rookie Blaine Gabbert only rarely looking to throw downfield, and until the latter challenges the Atlanta secondary, the one-dimensional Jacksonville offense could be in trouble.
The one thing that the Falcons’ defense does well is swarm to the football, as there are multiple players hitting the spot every time the opponent makes a play. This week Atlanta’s defense will be tasked with slowing down Jones-Drew, while finding a way to move the ball more efficiently on offense without turning it over.
The Falcons’ wide receivers lead the league in dropped balls, but the tandem of Julio Jones and Roddy White made some spectacular grabs last week and both can be game changers. Regardless of the passing game strengths, Atlanta has a formidable weapon in its backfield in running back Michael Turner, and it’s never a bad idea to allow him to hammer the rock.
Which Tucker-led team shows up : the one blown out by San Diego two weeks ago or the one that rallied to pound Tampa Bay? That will determine the team's competitiveness in a road game at a playoff contender.
Atlanta's Ryan has been a forgotten commodity for much of the season as other young quarterbacks (Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, etc.) have earned more headlines. He's played well lately, however, and will be a key player to any deep Falcons run.
Jacksonville kicker Josh Scobee tweaked a groin in the win over the Buccaneers and could be a question mark if called upon in a tight spot. The Jaguars were considering signing a short-term back-up kicker for Thursday's game, and his status will be one to watch.
Jones-Drew set a franchise record with his 73rd TD last week. He needs two rushing TDs to eclipse the team record of 62 held by Fred Taylor.
White needs 36 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the fifth consecutive season.
Atlanta RB Michael Turner went over 1,000 yards last week, the third time he's done so in four seasons with the Falcons.
Atlanta is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
Falcons’ defensive coordinator Brian Van Gorder is still not thrilled with what he has seen from his team so far this year, and this will be a game where he really tests his troops. Atlanta put up a ton of points against the Panthers but still made too many mistakes, so head coach Mike Smith will want to see his offense set the tone for the game with a balanced attack.
Though the Jaguars piqued some interest last Sunday with their suddenly inspired and prolific play, a short-week trip to a team that runs, throws and plays defense on a higher level isn't exactly an easy assignment. If Tucker can pull this off he may take the lead in the franchise's coaching race, but it's more likely to end in the other direction.Bet on NFL Football games with Bodog Sportsbook, click here!
NFL Football Pick: Take Falcons.
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atlanta falcons - blaine gabbert - cam newton - carolina panthers - georgia dome - jacksonville jaguars - josh scobee - julio jones - matt ryan - maurice jones-drew
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